Entertainment

Though some winners at the 2026 Oscars are a foregone conclusion, several major awards — including Best Picture and Best Actor — are still a mystery.

By Kevin Slane

March 13, 2026 | 12:15 PM

10 minutes to read

If you’re looking for an edge on your 2026 Oscars predictions before the ceremony — hosted by Conan O’Brien this Sunday at 7 p.m. on ABC — there are three things you should know.

One, the favorites win the majority of the time. Two, the guilds representing the various branches of Academy voters usually know best. Three, Best Picture generally remains the hardest to predict of the major categories.

Since expanding the field from five to (up to) 10 movies for the 82nd Academy Awards in 2009, the Academy Award for Best Picture has had more notable upsets than any major category. Unlike the other awards, the Academy uses ranked choice voting to determine the Best Picture winner, with voters able to list all of the nominees in order of preference.

That’s led to some surprises, from “Spotlight” besting “The Revenant” to the chaos that ensued when “Moonlight” upset runaway favorite “La La Land.” More recently, the increasingly international voting body picked “Parasite” over “1917” in an upset few critics predicted. (Sorry to brag, but I got this one right!)

This year, the frontrunner appears to be “One Battle After Another,” thanks to its Best Picture wins from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Critics Choice Awards (CCA), Golden Globes, and several other awards bodies. But Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” is still very much in the running, having won a Golden Globe and a SAG (now called the Actors Awards) of its own.

The math is complicated, but broadly speaking, ranked choice values consensus. Hypothetically, if half of the 10,000+ Oscars voters rank “One Battle” first and half put Paul Thomas Anderson’s film in the bottom five, while simultaneously a majority of the voters pick “Sinners” in their top 3, Coogler could score a major upset. I’m not saying that’s what will happen, but I’m definitely not ruling it out.

To help you make sense of this year’s Academy Awards — as well as give you some of my own personal picks as Boston.com’s chief movie scribe — here is my full list of 2026 Oscars predictions, including who I think will win every category, who I wish would win, and who was snubbed of a deserving nomination.

2026 Oscars predictions

Best Picture

Nominees: “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams”

Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

Snubbed: “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

“One Battle After Another” was my pick for the best movie of 2025 back in December, and seeing it glide through awards season unscathed has been a pleasure.

As I noted above, however, ranked choice balloting very much leaves the door open to a “Sinners” win. I’m guessing that voters will reward Paul Thomas Anderson for a lifetime of classic films, but a “Sinners” win would also be pretty fantastic.

Best Actor

Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”)

Will win: Jordan

Should win: Hawke

Snubbed: Josh O’Connor, “The Mastermind”

This award seemed like Chalamet’s to lose early in awards season, and even a week ago, betting odds still favored Timmy. But the tide has turned just enough in the award season narratives that I’m picking Jordan’s dual role in “Sinners.” This is such a strong category that I wouldn’t be disappointed by any nominee winning, though my personal favorite is Hawke in Richard Linklater’s biopic “Blue Moon.”

For the second consecutive year, my pick for a snubbed actor is Josh O’Connor. The Brit was excellent in 2024’s “Challengers” and added two more great performances to his resumé this year with the third “Knives Out” movie and Kelly Reichardt’s “The Mastermind,” a ’70s art heist film set in Framingham, Mass.

Best Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”), Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”), Emma Stone (“Bugonia”)

Will win: Buckley

Should win: Byrne

Snubbed: Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee,” Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”

Buckley is going to run away with this, but Rose Byrne was a force of nature in “If I had Legs I’d Kick You.” And either Seyfried or Infiniti would’ve been an infinitely better choice than Kate Hudson in the chintzy “Song Sung Blue.”

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”), Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”)

Will and should win: Penn

Snubbed: Miles Caton, “Sinners”

A quick question for critics who called Penn’s performance as a self-serious ICE commander with a bad haircut and a foul temper “cartoonish” or “unrealistic”: Have you watched the news lately?

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”), Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”), Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”)

Will and should win: Madigan

Snubbed: None

Several nominees in the category have already won this awards season, with Taylor taking the Globe, Mosaku winning the BAFTA, and Madigan landing SAG and Critics Choice. SAG (now known as The Actors Awards) tends to do well at picking the acting categories, so I’m giving Aunt Gladys the edge.

Best Director

Nominees: Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)

Will and should win: Anderson

Snubbed: Mary Bronstein, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

This is a category that is causing a lot of discussion among Oscar fanatics. There’s no denying that Coogler becoming the first Black man to win Best Director would be an iconic moment and a long-overdue correction for years of oversights. But PTA has now won the same award from the Directors Guild, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and Globes, to name just a few. It’s almost certainly going to him, whereas Best Picture (with its ranked choice voting) is still in play.

Full list of Oscars 2026 predictions

Best Casting

Nominees: “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sinners”

Will and should win: “Sinners”

This is a new category, so there’s no historical precedence to look back on. “One Battle” also has a shot at this — and “Marty Supreme” ran a nifty campaign highlighting its use of non-actors in the film’s cast — but I think “Sinners” lands this. I would’ve loved to see a nomination here for Carson Lund’s old-man baseball movie “Eephus” here.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: “Blue Moon,” “It Was Just An Accident,” “Marty Supreme,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners”

Will win: “Sinners”

Should win: “Blue Moon”

The script for “Sinners” is excellent, but let me take a moment to stump for “Blue Moon.” If Robert Kaplow’s script was a stage play, he’d be the toast of the Tonys.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: “Bugonia,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “One Battle After Another,” “Train Dreams”

Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

Pretty much every precursor award for screenplays has gone to either “Sinners” or “One Battle,” so they should easily win these.

Best International Feature Film

Nominees: “The Secret Agent,” “It Was Just An Accident,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sirât,” “The Voice of Hind Rajab”

Will and should win: “Sentimental Value”

It’s unfortunate that Joachim Trier’s film will likely be limited to just the International Feature award after racking up nine nominations. That said, this is a stacked field featuring a politically pertinent film (Iranian director Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident”) a potential spoiler (fellow best picture nominee “The Secret Agent”), and a sixth film that would’ve made the field almost any other year (“No Other Choice”).

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees: “Arco,” “Elio,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain,” “Zootopia 2”

Will and should win: “KPop Demon Hunters”

This was a down year for animated films in general, but the two most popular, “Zootopia 2” and “KPop Demon Hunters,” were both standouts. “Zootopia 2” came within a whisker of $1.5 billion at the box office, but “KPop Demon Hunters” was a genuine cultural phenomenon.

Best Documentary Feature Film

Nominees: “The Alabama Solution,” “Come See Me in the Good Light,” “Cutting Through Rocks,” “Mr Nobody Against Putin,” “The Perfect Neighbor”

Will win: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

Should win: “The Alabama Solution”

This is a messy category to predict, with many precursor awards going to movies not even nominated by the Academy. Due to its timeliness, I’m giving the slight edge to “Mr Nobody,” a film about a schoolteacher cataloguing Vladimir Putin’s information war from his vantage point in the remote Ural Mountains, over “The Perfect Neighbor,” which won the Critics Choice Award.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Dear Me” (from “Diane Warren: Relentless”), “Golden” (from “KPop Demon Hunters”), “I Lied to You” (from “Sinners”), “Sweet Dreams of Joy” (from “Viva Verdi”), “Train Dreams” (from “Train Dreams”)

Will win: “Golden” (from “KPop Demon Hunters”)

Should win: “I Lied to You” (from “Sinners”)

If “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” wins this award despite “Golden” winning awards from the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Grammys, “Sinners” could be in for a huge night.

Best Original Score

Nominees: “Bugonia,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners”

Will and should win: “Sinners”

Ludwig Göransson faced the indignity of being the one honoree who had to accept his award during a commercial break at the Golden Globes this year. Here’s hoping the Oscars don’t play him off.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams”

Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

Michael Bauman was honored for his work by the American Society of Cinematographers over the weekend, so this feels like almost a lock. I wish I could get “Train Dreams” an award here, but it’s likely one award after another for “OBAA.”

Best Sound

Nominees: “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,”
“Sirât”

Will win: “F1”

Should win: “Sinners”

In recent years, awards like Sound and Visual Effects have traditionally gone to blockbusters not contending for the major awards. There’s a chance that this just goes to either “Sinners” or “One Battle,” but I’m betting enough voters got their teeth rattled by the racing scenes in “F1.”

Best Film Editing

Nominees: “F1,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners”

Will and should win: “One Battle After Another”

This is another award that often goes to blockbusters like “F1.” But I’m guessing that Andy Jurgensen’s work on “One Battle” will get the nod here.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “F1,” “Jurassic World Rebirth,” “The Lost Bus,” “Sinners”

Will and should win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

“Fire and Ash” was the weakest of the three “Avatar” films, but no one else is making movies that look like James Cameron’s fantasy epic.

Best Production Design

Nominees: “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners”

Will win: “Frankenstein”

Should win: “Sinners”

Guillermo Del Toro’s films always have incredible detail work, so I’m guessing he will clean up in the craft categories for his labor of love.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “Sinners”

Will win: “Frankenstein”

Should win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Ditto what I said about production design.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: “Frankenstein,” “Kokuho,” “Sinners,” “The Smashing Machine,” “The Ugly Stepsister”

Will and should win: “Frankenstein”

The Makeup & Hairstyling category tends to march to the beat of its own drum, so there’s a chance this branch will go for something audacious like “The Ugly Stepsister.” But I’m picking a rare trifecta for “Frankenstein” in the craft categories.

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees: “Butcher’s Stain,” “A Friend of Dorothy,” “Jane Austen’s Period Drama,” “The Singers,” “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Will win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Should win: “Jane Austen’s Period Drama”

I initially picked “The Singers,” a heartwarming short easily streamable on Netflix, but there seems to be a groundswell of support for this French short about a world in which kissing is illegal.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees: “Butterfly,” “Forevergreen,” “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” “Retirement Plan, “The Three Sisters”

Will and should win: “Butterfly”

Voting took place during the 2026 Olympics, so this uplifting short about a Jewish Olympic swimmer who competed for France in the 1936 Berlin games seems like a good bet in a tough-to-predict category.

Best Documentary Short Film

Nominees: “All the Empty Rooms,” “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud,” “Children No More: ‘Were and are Gone,’” “The Devil is Busy,” “Perfectly A Strangeness”

Will win: “All the Empty Rooms”

Should win: “The Devil is Busy”

This is a coin flip between two deserving shorts, but “All the Empty Rooms” has the edge of streaming on Netflix and the emotional impact of visiting the bedrooms of children lost in school shootings.

Source